Winning streaks

Most authors since Thorp have written as though 1:4 was large enough. I took small bet variation to the extreme in Professional Blackjack, recommending flat bets and Wonging.

It is also possible to get away with the other extreme — to use bet variation, and lots of it. You might be able to get away with one hand of $25 on the worst situations and have two hands of $200 or more on the best. In casinos where bets over $100 attract too much attention, you might be able to get away with $5 to $100.

Bet variation is tolerated better now than it was in the 1970s. Perhaps this is due to the increased number of Asian customers in casinos now. In Macao and other countries in the Orient, huge bet variation is the norm; if the table limit is 10 to 2000 in local currency, most customers seem willing to bet 10 for a starter and progress to 2000 if they hit a winning streak. If casino employees see enough poor players use huge bet variation, then a card counter using big bet variation can blend right in.

The trick to getting away with big bet variation is to do it in other than a mechanical, by-the-numbers way. For example, you might occasionally pop out a big bet on the first round after a shuffle. If you are going $25 to two hands of $200, for example, you might sometimes bet one hand of $100 or more on the first round. If you bet $100 on the first round, then you might go up to $200 or drop to $25 on the second round, depending on the count. Thus you get a $25 to $200 spread on the second round. Cutting back from $100 to $25 does not seem to attract attention. If you had bet only $25 on the first round you certainly would attract attention betting $200 on the second round!

Try to avoid any sort of a pattern. For example, if you realize that for the last ten minutes you have been betting only one or two green chips each hand because the count has not gone very high, you might pop out five greens on the first round after the shuffle. Your expected win is negative on that one bet, but it buys you the ability to bet five or more green chips on the next good count.
Do not use bet variation in a mechanical manner. If the count calls for a big bet, just grab a handful of chips and place them in the circle. If you want to bet $200 and you are betting quarters, for example, you may actually have $200 out there, but if you did not grab exactly the correct number of chips you might bet $175 or $225. People do not seem to pay as much attention to how much you bet as how you bet it. You would probably get more attention carefully counting out $150 than by quickly grabbing a handful of chips that happens to total $225.

A side benefit from betting odd amounts is more dealer errors. For example, once I bet $55 in $5 chips and was allowed to insure the whole bet for just $25. The dealer thought I had bet an even $50.
Bet what you can get away with rather than trying to bet an optimal amount that depends on the count. If the count is negative, try to bet the least you can get away with. If you have an edge, try to bet as close to the optimal amount as possible with the constraint that you want your bet size to look natural to whoever is watching.

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Streaks
Try to be somewhat consistent with what casino people expect you to bet. For example, if you have been betting $100 per hand for several hands and losing hand after hand, you probably should stick with $100 on the next hand even if the count justifies a higher bet. But if you can give the impression you are "steaming," then you might jump to $300. If you do increase your bet after a series of losses, give the impression that you are emotional and the bet is impulsive.

You will have losing streaks and winning streaks. Do not get overconfident after a big win, and do not get discouraged after a big loss. You will continue to have big wins and big losses, and you cannot predict which will be next. If you play blackjack long enough, you will be rich. The long-run odds are with you, even though you will occasionally lose in the short run.
There will be times when everything turns out wrong. You may get so discouraged that you feel like doing the opposite of what the system recommends. The times will also come when the dealer or other blackjack players will try to dissuade you from doing something that they think is foolish. Chin up. Have confidence. The system works. Let others think that you are playing blackjack foolishly and throwing your money away. You know better.

I should mention that there is no support for the notion that streaks tend to perpetuate themselves. Just because you have won a couple of hands in a row does not make you any more likely to win the next hand, and losing a couple of hands does not make you any more likely to lose the next one. But there is a lot of superstition connected with blackjack gambling, and the casino employees who are watching are among the most superstitious. If you can use their superstitions to justify an action you would like to take anyway, do it. And if you do something that is contrary to their superstitions, you must realize that you will arouse suspicions.
For example, suppose you have been losing hand after hand. This happens, and all too frequently. The people who are watching, including the dealer, are probably expecting you to cut back on your bet size or perhaps even leave the table. All of a sudden the count goes high, and you want to make a big bet. Go ahead and increase your bet size, but with the realization that your big bet looks irrational to superstitious people watching you. If the count stays high and you continue to bet big and you continue to lose, you should leave the casino as soon as the positive count disappears. The reason is you will have aroused suspicions by betting high while losing; casino employees think that is unusual behavior. There is nothing you can do to get your credibility back. But suspicions not confirmed seem to be forgotten. You can come back the next day and everyone will act as if nothing unusual has happened.

The best situation to be in is to be winning hand after hand and have a high count. When you are winning hand after hand, everyone who is watching is expecting you to bet bigger. To them, no bet seems too large after you win five in a row. One thing you should try to avoid doing is cutting your bet by a small amount after winning several hands in a row. For example, if you have been betting $150 and winning and the count justifies only a $100 bet, do not cut back to $100 because that would look unusual to anyone watching. If you still have an edge, you probably should stick with $150. If the count went negative, you probably should drop all the way to $25. When you are winning, dropping from $150 to $25 looks more natural than dropping from $150 to $100. When you are on a winning streak and cut your bet way down, act as if you think your luck is about to change and now it is the dealer's turn to win. Of course the real reason you cut back is the count now is negative.

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