Split or Double? part II

That merely means that in order to have a solid shot at winning a hand, you should have a total of 19, 20, or 21. If you think you could Win money at the table if you were sitting with an 18 all day long, you'd get hammered.

The average is 18.5, which behooves you to have at least 19 before you sit back and wait for the dealer to play her cards.
Of course we won't always get 19, 20, or 21, but at least you shouldn't be surprised if you are getting whacked with hands that don't end up at the minimum total of 19. And when the dealer has that power card staring back at you, the odds are tremendously in the favor of the house.

By checking my Basic Strategy chart, or any strategy chart for that instance, take a look at the suggestion when you are dealt a soft hand of Ace 2, Ace 3, Ace 4, Ace 5, Ace 6, or Ace 7. We'll say the dealer has a very weak card of 5 or 6 as the up card. The move calls for a double down and you will get just one card when you double down. But doubling is the correct move in all of these cases. We'll just take the case of doubling the Ace 4 vs. the dealer's 5. Let's see what could happen, keeping in mind that 18.5 is the average Winning hand. We are hoping to get either 19, 20, or 21, even though the dealer is in trouble.

With that Ace 4 we have soft 15 and will get one of these thirteen possible card denominations:

1. An Ace gives us a total of 16
2. A deuce gives us a total of 17
3. A 3 gives us a total of 18
4. A 4 gives us a total of 19 good
5. A 5 gives us a total of 20 good
6. A 6 gives us a total of 21 good
7. A 7 gives us a total of 12
8. An 8 gives us a total of 13
9. A 9 gives us a tot o 14
10. A 10, lack, Queen, King gives us a total of 15

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Admittedly the proper move is to double in this instance, and in every one of those situations where you have a soft doubling hand the correct move is a double, because the Ace protects you from not being in a position of breaking. So, doubling down is the correct move. But look how many times you got a 19 or 20 or 21!

Three times. Three times, out of a possible thirteen different cards will you end up with 19 or better. The other ten times you will have 18 or less. And you doubled the amount of your initial bet to be put in this position. You can work this out with all of the soft hands I laid out for you and you'll come out with the same three out of thirteen times having a 19 or better.

The move is correct in itself, because when the dealer shows that weak 5 or 6, you sure do wanna get more money against her. But the point I am making is that doubling or splitting does not guarantee you will get a strong hand to fight with her. In fact the opposite is true. The overwhelming amount of times, you will have a notoriously weak blackjack hand with which to do battle.

"We do not double and split to get a good hand we double and split to get more money vs. the dealer, when she is in trouble." Remember that!

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