Blackjack Percentages

So many people ask me what percentage they are fighting when they play in a casino. In Craps, everybody fights the same percentage, since each roll of the dice determines who wins and who loses all around the table. Everyone has the same chances of winning or losing.

The percentages in dice remain constant, because the odds never change. For instance, the odds of making a 6 or 8 is always 6 to 5 against you. An hour ago, two hours from now, yesterday, today, a week from tomorrow, these odds will be the same.

But, in Blackjack, where decisions are made on each hand by each player, the richness or poorness of the deck changes the percentages for or against a player making a particular move. And, the percentages will be different each hand. So, card counters naturally have an advantage playing Blackjack. But, even if you are not a card counter and always make the right Basic Strategy moves based on a neutral deck, you're still better off than the haphazard player.

Of the 8% who use Basic Blackjack Strategy (which is 3,200 of the 40,000), only 2-1/2% of that number follow it religiously. (2-1/2% of 8% is .002 or .2% or 2/10ths of 1 percent of the 40,000 total). Can you believe this? Only 80 people! Here is a small group of people aware of something that works and not even three out of a hundred of them use it all the time! That's as bad as being aware of a tax loophole and not taking it. It's downright unpatriotic! No, it's worse than that!!

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The ones who know Basic Strategy but don't use it all the time, sometimes make different decisions based on feelings, or bankroll, or position at the table. In other words, they deviate when they get scared.
Now you should understand why casinos report incomes of $150,000,000 per month.

Incidentally, there is one more figure released. It reports that of the 40,000 screened, only half of one percent of one percent (.00005 or, .005%) are perfect, professional card counters. Not just self proclaimed card counters, but experts. That breaks down to a microscopic 2 out of 40,000 Blackjack players. And yet, the casinos make all the rules to stop the expert card counter. If the losses of 39,998 can't provide restitution for the damage done by 2 players, the destruction must be severe!

Well, it's definitely enough to grab the attention of the casino bosses. But, don't overlook what the other 78 dedicated Basic Strategy players achieve. And those that practice smart money management are ahead of the rest.
If you are dealt a 6, 10 (sixteen), and the dealer shows a 7, you will have to make a choice, based on a neutral deck. If you take a hit, you will lose an average of 70% of the time, or 70 hands out of 100.
If you stand pat on sixteen versus the dealer's 7, you will lose an average of 74% of the time, or 74 hands out of 100.

You know immediately that you have a rotten hand with sixteen versus the dealer's 7. He can turn over five cards (10, Jack, Queen, King, Ace) and beat you. Losing 70% or 74% of the time is going to hurt either way, but you must take the lesser of the two losses. Naturally, you hit, since the percentages say you will save an extra 4 hands out of 100.

Basic Strategy players know this and make the intelligent moves. Others guess, and because their plays are unpredictable, so are the percentages.

Basic Strategy players making all the correct moves can reduce the house percentage to 1-1/2% to 2%. This is as good as it gets without card counting.

The hunch player may guess right most of the time or not at all. It isn't likely that he will reduce the house's slight edge over the Basic Strategy player. Sometimes he may guess wrong and still win the hand. Great. That happens to someone every day. Yet, I would hate to base my winning or losing at Blackjack on gut feelings or hopes.
I would prefer to sit down and play Basic Strategy and fight a steady 2% disadvantage, at most.

A survey of 40,000 Blackjack players in Atlantic City produced some amazing statistics. A whopping 92% said they don't use Basic Strategy just gut feelings!

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